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How The 2024 Bird Flu Outbreak Is Impacting Our Food

WALDOBORO, ME - JANUARY 17: A chicken jumps off an egg box as Seth Lawler gathers eggs out of the ... [+] box at Bowden's Egg Farm in Waldoboro on Tuesday, January 17, 2017. Farm owner Dennis Bowden used to have 33,000 laying hens at the farm up until a few years ago. His cages needed updating and he was 65, so he decided to scale back and switch to a cage free operation with 3,000 hens. (Photo by Gregory Rec/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)

Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Avian influenza, commonly known as Avian Flu or bird flu, is a type of influenza virus that primarily affects birds, but as recent reports have shown, can also infect humans and other animals including cattle. The origins of avian flu can be traced back to aquatic birds, where the virus occurs naturally. However, it can spread rapidly to domestic poultry leading to significant health, economic, and agricultural implications. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since the latest Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 (HPAI) outbreak in 2022 over 82 million birds in 48 U.S. States have been culled and 36 dairy herds were affected. The USDA has tested retail ground beef for the virus and maintains that the U.S. Meat supply is safe as they continue to test retail milk samples since discovering in mid April that 1 in 5 milk samples from grocery stores across the nation tested positive for Avian Flu – adding even more anxiety to shoppers on the safety of our food supply. The World Health Organization strongly advises that people consume only pasteurized milk, in which bacteria and viruses have been killed, and avid consuming raw milk.

Prices for farm-level eggs fell by 23.2 percent in March 2024 after increasing by 53.8 percent in February. As you know, the outbreak of Avian Flu that began in 2022 contributed to elevated egg prices in some supermarkets up to $7 a dozen. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the national average in cities hit the high point in January of 2023 at $4.82 for a dozen grade A large eggs. In March 2024, prices for farm-level eggs were 35.7 percent lower than March 2023, when prices remained high following the initial onset of HPAI in 2022. After the egg prices peaked in January 2023, they declined or stabilized through much of 2023. Now, with new confirmations of Avian Flu in November 2023, we are witnessing steady price increases. Farm-level egg prices are predicted to increase 22.3 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of up to 123.4 percent. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, egg prices are the most volatile category tracked leading to the wide prediction interval.

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 08: Customers talk about the price of eggs at a supermarket on January 8, ... [+] 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by I RYU/VCG via Getty Images)

VCG via Getty Images Historical Context

The history of avian influenza dates back to the early 20th century, with the first significant recorded outbreak occurring in Italy in 1878. The disease was initially thought to be unique to birds until the first case of human infection was documented in Hong Kong in 1997. This incident involved the H5N1 strain, one of the most virulent forms of the virus, which raised global alarms due to its severe impact on human health and high mortality rate. Since then, multiple outbreaks of various strains of avian flu, including H7N9, H5N8, and H5N6, have been reported around the world. These outbreaks have predominantly affected Asia, Europe, and Africa, with sporadic reports in North America.

Transmission And Symptoms

Avian flu viruses are highly contagious among birds and can spread through direct contact with infected animals or contaminated environments. In humans, the infection usually occurs through direct contact with infected birds or surfaces that have been contaminated with their secretions or feces. Human symptoms of avian flu are similar to those of regular seasonal flu, including fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches. Severe cases can lead to pneumonia, multiple organ failure, and death.

Global Impact

The global impact of avian influenza is significant. Economically, outbreaks lead to massive losses for the poultry industry due to the culling of infected birds and trade restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the virus. For instance, during the 2015 outbreak in the United States, over 50 million birds were culled, resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses. In 2023 the Department of Agriculture paid poultry producers more than half a billion dollars for the turkeys, chickens and egg-laying hens that had to be culled due to the H5N1 virus.

Public health systems are also heavily impacted during outbreaks, as resources are mobilized to contain the spread of the virus and treat infected individuals. The fear of a pandemic similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, which also originated from an avian-like virus, further complicates the global response to outbreaks.

Current Situation In The U.S. And Globally

In recent years, the United States has experienced sporadic outbreaks of avian flu, primarily affecting wild birds and some domestic poultry farms. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) actively monitor bird populations and work to contain outbreaks through surveillance, biosecurity measures, and public education campaigns.

Globally, the situation is more complex due to varying levels of biosecurity in different countries and the widespread nature of poultry farming in Asia and Africa. Countries like China and Vietnam have faced recurrent outbreaks of avian flu, which have required ongoing vigilance and response efforts. In October of 2023, H5NI killed more than 24,000 South American sea lions and has spread to elephant seals.

Prevention And Control Measures

Preventive measures against avian flu focus on improving biosecurity at poultry farms, which includes isolating poultry from wild birds, implementing sanitary measures, and educating farmers about the signs of the disease. Vaccination of poultry against avian flu is also practiced in some countries, though it is not widespread due to the varying strains of the virus and the cost of vaccine development.

Florida, Miami Beach, Trader Joe's, grocery store, refrigerated egg aisle, organic, cage free, ... [+] brown, pasture raised. (Photo by: Jeff Greenberg/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Today, most poultry operations are carefully controlled environments with flocks that can range up to several thousand birds primarily in indoor open floor housing or battery cages with automatic feeding and watering systems with very high animal density, which is why if just one bird is infected, the entire flock must be removed. Most shoppers believe that cage-free eggs, now a mainstream offering in most supermarkets, are hatched in a less crowded environment; but according to USDA regulations, "cage free" must be produced by hens housed in a building, room, or enclosed area that allows for unlimited access to food, water, and provides the freedom to roam within the area during the laying cycle. In March 2024, according to the USDA, cage-free hens represent about 40 percent of the U.S. Flock and were also affected by the virus, which in January 2024 saw the nationally advertised price for a dozen cage-free eggs peak at $5.26 vs the national average for conventional eggs at $2.52, over double the price. Studies have shown that nutritionally speaking, there is no differences between cage-free and conventionally farmed raised eggs.

Stony Brook, N.Y.: Jill Werfel, of Stony Brook, New York, with her laying hens in the backyard of ... [+] her home on August 10, 2021. (Photo by Steve Pfost/Newsday RM via Getty Images)

Newsday via Getty Images

For human protection, health authorities recommend avoiding direct contact with infected or potentially infected birds, practicing good hygiene, and using protective gear when necessary. This advice is important as since the pandemic and due to the rise in egg prices, consumers have bought their own backyard chickens to raise their own eggs.

Future Challenges And Global Collaboration

The challenge lies in improving global surveillance and cooperation to manage and prevent avian flu outbreaks. This includes sharing information between countries, standardizing reporting practices, and supporting research into more effective vaccines and treatments. Global health organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) play a crucial role in coordinating international efforts to monitor and respond to avian influenza. Their work is vital in preventing the spread of the virus across borders and in mitigating the potential for a global pandemic.

While the immediate threat of avian influenza to humans remains relatively low compared to other infectious diseases, its impact on public health, agriculture, and economies around the world is significant and needs to be watched.

In the meantime, yes, we can expect to see the price of eggs go up in the remaining months of 2024.

Experts Express Concerns About The Bird Flu Outbreak In Dairy Cows

As bird flu infections continue and spread, experts are weighing in about severity of the outbreak and the potentially alarming paths H5N1 appears to be taking. Of particular concern are the multi-state reports of avian influenza showing up in dairy cattle, and whether the disease could spread to humans. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), outbreaks in dairy cattle were first reported on March 25, 2024, with known cases in nine states as of May 2. To date, 36 cattle herds are known to have been infected with the bird flu virus.

Though still considered rare, more than 200 mammals have tested positive for H5N1 bird flu since 2022. The CDC has confirmed the first case of mammal-to-human transmission occurred in Texas, though the organization is still maintaining that its human health risk assessment for the U.S. General public is low. Those with direct, prolonged, and unprotected exposure to infected animals, including cattle, carry greater infection risk.

However, a boots-on-the-ground viewpoint from scientists is more nuanced, particularly among epidemiologists who investigate causes, patterns, and public health risks related to disease and injury. In an interview with Agriculture Dive, epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, a public health expert, prominent science blogger, and scientific advisor to the CDC, digs into the potential dangers of bird flu outbreaks in cows, and the consequent impact on humans.

Read more: 14 Popular Chain Grocery Stores For Meat, Ranked Worst To Best

Testers analyzing wastewater - Casarsaguru/Getty Images

In conversations with Agricultural Dive, Jetelina makes the concerns over H5N1 bird flu spreading from dairy cattle to humans clear. Noting many lingering questions, she acknowledges that it's likely more widespread than reported, primarily due to incomplete data and complexities with identifying transmission, sources, and how or where transmission is occurring. "We need to do a whole lot more testing to understand how this virus has changed over time, and therefore predict where it might end up," she said.

An infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of Texas, Gregory Gray, agrees that human cases of H5N1 are likely much higher already, based on typical bird-flu symptoms among on-site workers that are coinciding with cattle infections (via NPR). It's also probably more geographically widespread, he notes.

What we do know is concerning on several levels, explains Jetelina. Wastewater surveillance, which soared during the COVID-19 pandemic, is showing spikes in H5N1, though more research is necessary to identify the source, whether from animals, humans, milk dumping, or animal waste. Issues of prevention arise, including the controversial use of animal vaccines. "I think if we start seeing human-to-human transmission, we certainly need to start really ramping up our vaccine manufacturing," Jetelina says. It's important to note that human infection via food consumption is considered unlikely at this point, per USDA testing of ground beef and FDA testing of dairy products. However, experts and scientists still caution that testing has been limited and needs to increase.

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How Dangerous Is The Bird Flu Outbreak? Here's What I'm Telling My Patients.

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